Predicting the outcome of a soccer match

Statistical Anomalies To Be Wary Of When Soccer Betting

Any experienced soccer punter will tell you that statistics are vital to predicting the outcome of a soccer match and how to find the value bet. There are plenty of factors that could affect the result of a game, and all of them are of utmost importance. Variables such as lineups, injuries, expected goals, league positions, past performances, and so on are generally taken into account while fixing odds and making soccer predictions. But every now and again, the unexpected happens, and certain things we never even thought of considering completely changes the outcome of a match. So here are some statistical anomalies that you should keep in mind when making a bet.

Underdog victories or favorite defeats

A loss can take a severe toll on the morale of any team, especially if they are the favorites who were expected to win. Such a disheartening defeat can substantially impact the form of a team, and how they perform during their next match.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, an unexpected win could give a team a much-needed boost to their confidence and self-esteem, which could most definitely improve their performance in their upcoming matches.

Weather conditions

Sometimes, the weather of a particular place is just as hard to predict as some games, it's cold one minute, and raining the next. The climate does play a massive role in the outcome of a match. Some teams, no matter how good they are, might not be able to take the harsh temperatures of a particular country, which would have a considerable impact on their form. Unexpected bad weather could also change the outcome of a match.

 

Travel

Travel takes a toll on players. If you notice that a team has been traveling a lot before the match, they might not play at the same quality that we are used to. This is one of the reasons why most teams win home games. If a team has had a busy travel itinerary, you can expect that they may be fatigued.

 

Sudden changes in bookmaker odds

When a match is about to take place between an obvious favorite and an underdog, you may find that the bookmaker, out of nowhere, changes the odds. When the result of a match is visible, sportsbooks usually see a massive influx of people betting on one team, so they might alter their initial odds to balance out the bets. In this case, inexperience punters may bet on the underdog, and lose a large portion of the money.

 

Injuries and other unexpected occurrences

Although athletes are sometimes regarded to be god-like figures, they are just as human as we are. A few days before, or even during a game, a star player might go down due to an injury, rendering them unable to play. An unexpected injury could change the entire dynamic of the match. Apart from injuries, there are plenty of other factors, personal issues, for instance, that could impact the form of a player.


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